REAL WORLD ECONOMICS
Real Life Economics for the Small Business
and the Individual Investor.
World Institute for Development Economics Research of the United Nations University
Title: China, India, Brazil and South Africa in the World Economy: Engines of Growth?
This is a good supporting document for the previous article: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs.
It is important for local businesses to understand where the goods that you sell are coming from now and in the future (the local effects of Gatt and the WTO policies) coupled with the effects of the devaluation of the dollar, shipping costs, etc. on local economies.
From the investor standpoint, the information is of value in determining long range strategies concerning emerging market funds, currencies, commodities and ETF's
It reinforces two of the four transformations spoken of in the A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs article:
- The emergence of China
- Restructuring of American Business
Publication date: June 2008
Brief:
This paper attempts to analyze the economic implications of the rise of China, India, Brazil and South Africa, for developing countries situated in the wider context of the world economy. It examines the possible impact of their rapid growth on industrialized countries and developing countries, which could be complementary or competitive and, on balance, positive or negative. In doing so, it considers the main channels of transmission, to focus on international trade, investment, finance and migration.
The essential question is whether, in times to come, these four countries could be the new engines of growth for the world economy. The answer is that rapid growth in China already supports growth elsewhere, so far primarily as a market for exports, while India and Brazil have the potential to provide similar support, but South Africa does not yet exhibit such a potential.
In the future, these countries could also provide resources for investment and technologies for productivity. The transformation and catch-up could span half a century or longer. Even so, rapid growth in these large emerging economies is already beginning to change the balance of economic power in the world.